Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 9.672985 11.101851 12.639758 14.414549 16.402534 18.556914 21.064453
2025-12-07 7.672796 9.630203 11.899717 14.710869 18.083562 21.983198 26.815517
2025-12-14 6.453645 8.590518 11.190975 14.561175 18.782979 23.863977 30.405245
2025-12-21 5.302101 7.460406 10.208706 13.922662 18.762048 24.800644 32.844133
2025-12-28 4.812708 7.089352 10.098068 14.304181 19.960761 27.224434 37.162523
2026-01-04 4.366052 6.712489 9.922147 14.551123 20.957925 29.400618 41.232338
2026-01-11 3.882171 6.221299 9.528975 14.443306 21.432650 30.869532 44.393793
2026-01-18 3.461788 5.772532 9.145056 14.298433 21.816897 32.200077 47.391254
2026-01-25 3.141066 5.437028 8.888462 14.301468 22.385936 33.783494 50.774647
2026-02-01 2.889630 5.181473 8.723729 14.415672 23.103225 35.585764 54.516799
2026-02-08 2.621111 4.869499 8.442310 14.323177 23.492925 36.915405 57.615347
2026-02-15 2.377157 4.572619 8.157105 14.196468 23.809154 38.132610 60.576962
2026-02-22 2.198196 4.373887 8.020399 14.303551 24.502682 39.958881 64.545780
2026-03-01 2.089719 4.289216 8.064923 14.704381 25.674594 42.553286 69.766868
2026-03-08 1.891207 4.019045 7.770371 14.517059 25.883785 43.664998 72.757161
2026-03-15 1.645416 3.633375 7.242039 13.893139 25.337575 43.562685 73.853095
2026-03-22 1.573632 3.576676 7.293223 14.269247 26.461515 46.134336 79.209585
2026-03-29 1.489409 3.486306 7.274634 14.517367 27.375455 48.396730 84.146598
2026-04-05 1.365891 3.302434 7.066742 14.409165 27.667189 49.651415 87.502521
2026-04-12 1.249612 3.121128 6.848485 14.264804 27.882306 50.778962 90.679480
2026-04-19 1.160706 2.989361 6.715353 14.267757 28.352295 52.340728 94.610869
2026-04-26 1.091092 2.893003 6.644371 14.381754 29.022212 54.257559 99.185390
2026-05-03 1.006296 2.752710 6.473015 14.289439 29.307934 55.522752 102.701368